Indian Monsoon May Escape El Nino Impact

New Delhi: El Nino has affected rainfall adversely in India bringing it below normal several times in the past. However its impact on the 2017 southwest monsoon in India would not be so strong because it would be a weak El Nino. This is apart from the fact that the forecasters see a 50-50% chance for the rain-disrupting El Nino phenomenon to emerge in the latter part of the year.

El Nino is a change in the climate of the Pacific Ocean around the Equator off the coast of Chile and Peru following the increase in the sea surface temperatures. Its impact is felt in countries around the world, including India, where monsoon rain is adversely affected by the phenomenon.

Five of eight international climate models suggest the tropical Pacific Ocean is likely to warm above El Niño thresholds during the second half of 2017,” Australian Bureau of Meteorology said in its latest outlook. “However, virtually all models now suggest less warming is likely to occur compared to their previous outlooks, indicating any event may be weak.”

The Indian Meteorological Department had said that a clear picture about the impact of El Nino on India’s monsoons would emerge only in June.

However, unanimity exists among all the forecasters, national and international, that chances of Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) forming over the Indian Ocean are bright. A positive IOD, a warm pool in the Indian Ocean has the potential of limiting the impact of an El Nino on the Indian monsoon.