Monsoon to Be Normal This Year: IMD

Monsoon rains are expected to be normal in 2017, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast.IMD director-general K J Ramesh said there there would be good distribution of rainfall across the country. “The country will receive 96 per cent of Long Period Average, with a model error of plus or minus 5 per cent,” Ramesh said at a news conference in New Delhi. There will be a fair distribution of monsoon across the country.

Anything between 96 and 104 per cent of the LPA is considered as “normal”. Anything under 96 per cent is considered as “below normal” and 104-110 per cent of the LPA as “above normal”.

Forecast assessment suggests 38% of probability for near normal monsoon rainfall in the country.

The IMD further said that the second stage of forecast will be issued in the first week of June.

Indian agriculture is heavily dependent on the monsoon as less than half of the total cultivable area is under irrigation.

In 2017 the IMD had forecast the monsoons to be above normal that is more than 106 per cent of the LPA, in its first forecast, while the actual rains turned out to around 97 per cent of the LPA as La Nina remained at neutral state. The forecast was with model error of plus and minus 5 per cent.