Sugar Industry Stable with Adequate Stocks and Positive Future Outlook: ISMA
- Taking into account an opening stock of 80 lac tons (as of Oct 1st, 2024), net sugar production (after ethanol diversion) of around 264 lac tons, a forecasted domestic consumption of around 280 lac tons, and 10 lac tons in exports for the 2024-25 season, ISMA projects a closing stock of 54 lac tons by 30th Sept, 2025, ensuring ample availability for domestic consumption.
- India has produced around 238 lac tons of sugar as of Mar 15, 2025, with around 200 mills (38% of total) still operational. Despite early closures in Maharashtra and Karnataka, mills in Karnataka and Tamil Nadu will resume operations during a special season in June/July 2025, boosting production.
- ISMA also projects a positive industry outlook for the 2025-26 season, with historical production trends indicating sugar output in the first two months (October-November) will exceed 43 lac tons, ensuring stable early-season supply.
- The apex body warns against misinformation and rumours spread by some section of the trade that aim to create unrest in the market.
- Unlike other sources that rely on word of mouth and release estimates sporadically to attract attention, ISMA bases its dependable forecasts on thorough research and data analysis, following a well-defined release schedule that ensures clarity and trustworthiness.
- ISMA releases its early projections each July, well before the monsoon concludes, offering an initial assessment of crop production backed by scientific data and extensive on-ground verification, which gives a sense of crop and production. However, a more precise advance estimate is then released in October/November, also based on scientific analysis.
- The government’s decision to allow 10 lakh tons of sugar exports has significantly impacted the industry and provided financial stability to millers by balancing domestic stock levels. The policy directly benefitted 5.5 crore farmers and their families, ensuring faster cane payments and financial stability.
- Nearly 80% of cane payments for the current season were cleared by mid-March 2025, compared to 69% by mid-January 2024. Additionally, 99.9% of cane payments for the 2023-24 season have been completed, ensuring better financial stability for farmers. The export policy is also expected to contribute ₹4,500 crore to foreign exchange reserves, strengthening India’s economy.
New Delhi, 19th March 2025: The Indian Sugar and Bio-Energy Manufacturers Association (ISMA), the apex body in the sugar and bio-energy industry in the country, affirmed the stable and sufficient availability of sugar across the country for the ongoing 2024-25 Sugar Season (SS), dispelling any concerns about potential shortages and supply constraints. With a projected closing stock of 54 lac tons by September 30, 2025, ISMA projects that India’s sugar reserves will remain more than adequate to meet domestic demand.
Stable Sugar Availability Despite Revised Estimates
As of March 15, 2025, India has produced approximately 238 lac tons of sugar, with around 200 sugar mills (38% of total mills) still operational. In Uttar Pradesh, nearly 75% of factories are running, with improved cane recovery expected to extend the crushing season until April. Meanwhile, although Maharashtra and Karnataka experienced lower cane yields, operations in select Karnataka mills are likely to resume during a special season in June/July 2025. Mills in Tamil Nadu are also set to operate during this period, contributing to sugar production.
Following a thorough review by ISMA’s Executive Committee on March 12, 2025, the net sugar production estimate, after diverting 35 lac tons for ethanol production, was revised to 264 lac tons. Despite reduced output in some regions, the association assures that sugar availability will comfortably meet domestic demand.
Projected Sugar Balance for 2024-25 season (in Lac tons):
| Particulars | 2024-25 (E) |
| Opening Stock (1st Oct 2024) | 80 |
| Net Sugar Production (after ethanol diversion) | 264 |
| Total Availability | 344 |
| Internal Consumption | 280 |
| Exports | 10 |
| Closing Stock (30th Sept 2025) | 54 |
FRP and Retail Price Trends Reflect Sustainable Market Conditions
Despite the 11.5% increase in Fair and Remunerative Price (FRP) over the past two years—from ₹305 per quintal in 2022-23 to ₹340 per quintal in 2024-25—retail sugar prices have shown only a modest 5% rise during the same period. In contrast, essential commodities such as rice, wheat, pulses, and edible oils have experienced higher price growth of 7-42%.
This controlled price movement reflects the sugar industry’s resilience and capacity to maintain consumer affordability, despite rising input costs.
Average Retail & Wholesale Prices of Sugar – Last 2 years:
| S.No. | Commodities | Unit | 2022 | 2024 | % change in 2 years (2022-2024) |
| 1 | Sugar (Retail Price) | Rs./Kg | 42.52 | 44.7 | 5.01% |
| 2 | Sugar (Wholesale Price) | Rs./Qtls. | 3843.1 | 4134.5 | 7.58% |
Positive Outlook for 2025-26 Sugar Season
ISMA remains optimistic about the upcoming 2025-26 season, backed by favourable weather conditions and improved planting. The 2024 monsoon has enhanced cane planting, particularly in Maharashtra and Karnataka, setting the stage for an on-time start of the crushing season in October 2025.
In Uttar Pradesh and other northern states, efforts to replace cane varieties are already showing promising results. This is expected to boost yields and recovery rates, contributing to robust sugar production next season.
Government’s Sugar Export Policy: A Boon for the Industry
The Indian government’s recent decision, announced on January 20, 2025, to allow the export of 10 lac tons of sugar for the current season has significantly benefitted the industry, ISMA confirms. This policy has helped balance domestic sugar stocks while providing financial stability to millers. The timely exports have allowed mills to make prompt cane payments, benefiting 5.5 crore farmers and their families.
As of mid-March 2025, nearly 80% of cane payments for the current season have been cleared, a substantial improvement over the 69% clearance by mid-January 2024. Additionally, 99.9% of cane payments for the 2023-24 season have been completed, ensuring better financial stability for farmers. The export allowance has also provided a financial buffer for the industry, which has been crucial for stabilising domestic prices and controlling inflation while enabling mills to manage operational expenses more efficiently. Furthermore, sugar exports are also expected to contribute approximately ₹4,500 crore to India’s foreign exchange reserves, strengthening the nation’s economy and improving the trade balance.
About ISMA
The Indian Sugar and Bio-Energy Manufacturers Association (ISMA), is the apex body in the sugar and bio-energy industry in India, dedicated to safeguarding the interests of private sugar mills through conducive government policies. ISMA works closely with state sugar associations and the government to address industry concerns and develop growth-oriented policies. It is committed to the development of the sugar and bio-energy industry and the betterment of sugarcane farmers in the country.
